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00SL2
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Florida still critical for Democrats, despite party sanctions
By Lesley Clark, Beth Reinhard
MCT
Published on: 01/14/08
MIAMI — Forget what you've heard about Florida's primary not making any difference in the Democratic nomination process. So what if candidates are boycotting the state?
Here's why Florida's Democratic primary on Jan. 29 will likely matter: One million — maybe 2 million — people will go to the polls. The names of eight Democratic candidates will be on the ballot. The votes will be tallied, and the results will be announced.
"It has to have value because someone is going to win and someone is going to lose, and whoever wins is certainly going to claim it," said Democratic pollster Tom Eldon, who has been surveying likely primary voters. "Unless the media boycotts the race, Florida will have an impact."
In a race in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have split the winnings so far and could do the same in Nevada and South Carolina, Florida will serve as the largest testing ground yet. It also will deliver the last boost of momentum before a 22-state voting blitz on Feb. 5 that is likely to settle the nomination.
"If this continues to be as close and roller-coaster-like as we're seeing, there will be a strong message that comes out of Florida," said the state's Democratic Party chairwoman, Karen Thurman. "After Iowa and New Hampshire, I didn't see headlines about the number of delegates that the candidates got. It's been about the winner."
Remember how the media dissected Obama's popularity with young voters in Iowa and Clinton's backing from women in New Hampshire? Imagine the interest in Florida's huge voting blocs of Hispanics, blacks and seniors, offering clues as to how those constituencies may vote in other states.
If John Edwards does poorly in his birth state of South Carolina on Jan. 26 and pulls out of the race, Florida will reveal to whom his supporters will turn.
And if Obama wins South Carolina on a wave of support from the state's large black population, the momentum could help him catch up to, or even overtake, a weakened Clinton in Florida, where she has led by double digits in the polls for months.
Florida is simply too big to ignore, and too critical to the final outcome in November.
Sure, there are caveats. The hard-fought, multimillion-dollar Republican contest in the state — in which actual delegates to the national convention are at stake — is likely to grab bigger headlines.
"The press tends to take its cues from the campaigns themselves," said National Public Radio media correspondent David Folkenflik. "I don't think you will see a full-court press for the Florida Democratic primary."
A new law that moved the state's potentially irrelevant March primary to Jan. 29 flouted national party rules that allow only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to vote that early. The Democratic National Committee came down hard on Florida, stripping away all its delegates to the national convention.
That means the Jan. 29 primary won't divvy up delegates that push the top vote-getters closer to the number needed to secure the nomination. But there will still be winners and losers — likely chosen by more Democrats than will have voted in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina combined.
"If there are split decisions in Nevada and South Carolina, the press may look at Florida as divining something," Folkenflik said. "The press is more interested in momentum than delegates."
Once the national Democratic Party took the delegates away, the major candidates bowed to pressure from the four early-primary states to boycott Florida. No public appearances or advertising is allowed under "the pledge."
Eldon surmised that no matter how much Clinton and Obama may be tempted to try to lock down Florida, neither will break the pledge — not out of fealty to the four states but because they fear looking like they care.
"If you don't campaign you don't have to worry about losing, and I think both sides are terrified of losing," he said. "It's a game of chicken, and no one wants to put their feet in and lose."
(EDITORS: STORY CAN END HERE)
Indeed, most Clinton supporters believe Florida will count, while Obama's camp tends to downplay the significance of the primary.
A recent Obama campaign memo titled "The Next Four Weeks" reads as if Florida's Jan. 29 primary does not exist. "Our campaign now turns its focus squarely to Nevada and South Carolina, and February 5th," it says.
But after several years of a GOP-controlled government, Florida Democrats are a hearty lot. Some are even applying to be delegates to the August convention in the hope that the presumptive nominee — who ultimately decides what delegates to seat — won't exclude the largest battleground state.
In the meantime, no candidate appearances? No problem. Democratic activist Dave Patlak brings a life-sized, cardboard cutout of Obama to "honk-and-wave" events on street corners.
Try telling Patlak the Democratic primary won't count.
"We figured if we're not going to get him here, we've got to get him here," said Patlak, lunching recently with the Obama stand-in and his wife in Miami Beach. "We'd like the real one, but ..."
Patlak leads a group called Miami-Dade for Obama, described as a "a grass-roots organization, not part of the Obama for America campaign." Similarly, a group of Clinton supporters call themselves an "official unofficial campaign" — essentially a grass-roots cheering section to make calls and send e-mails to likely voters.
"If there is a silver lining in this pledge, it's that the folks who are going out to campaign really know their neighborhoods," said Florida for Hillary founder Ana Cruz of Tampa. "You don't have to take direction on who you should be calling from some 25-year-old kid with the campaign who doesn't know the state."
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Source:
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/01/14/CAMPAIGN_FLORIDA_0114.html |
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:09 pm |
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twotap
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JEEZ I hope those Democratic Floridians can figure out that very complicated act known as Voting.  Get ballot, walk in booth, close curtain, make your choice, drop ballot in box and leave.  |
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:18 pm |
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last time here
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aw man. you know damn well thats up to....................DIEBOLD!!
greasy cheatin, vote stealin' repubs!!! 
wheres them KRISPY KREMES!!!? |
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Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:27 pm |
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