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back again
F L I N T O I D
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read and learn....  or continue being silly
you know ,being retired allows some to take time to enrich the brain.
attempting to sway ignorance is a cause i can't take time to do especially if they don't wish to be informed....just go right ahead. it's your brain.
rattle on brother!! |
_________________
even a small act of goodness may be a tiny raft of salvation across the treacherous gulf of sin, but one who drinks the wine of selfishness, and dances on the little boat of meaness, sinks in the ocean of ignorance.
P.Y. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:49 pm |
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Domet
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Hey twotap, don't know you but it's nice to meet you.
I have been reading your posts in this topic and have come to a fairly obvious conclusion: while you can clearly read, you have zero concept of how to understand or use statistics correctly. Unfortunately for you, citing that more violent crimes happen in Flint because of the black majority is startlingly racist of you - not because your numbers are wrong, but because you are using them inappropriately to explain why your racist views are correct.
I will take a second and try to explain this more in-depth.
When you say, as you have here (basically), "There are greater numbers of crimes in Flint because there is a larger minority population there," you are making an argument from correlation.
quote:
twotop schreef:
For anyone who ever wondered just how much more likely blacks or Hispanics are than whites to commit various crimes, the answers are here.
..and of course..
quote:
twotop schreef:
The proportion of blacks and Hispanics in an area is the single best indicator of how dangerous it is. The racial mix is a much better predictor of crime rates than poverty, unemployment, and dropout rates combined.
"As there are more black people, violent crime will be high." That's the basic correlative statement you are making here. In statistics, as well in science, we refer to that as a spurious claim. Let me give you an example, taken from an old stats book:
The amount of drowning deaths every year spikes suddenly in the summer. So does the amount of ice cream consumed. Looking at both the positive increase in ice cream consumption and drowning deaths, we can safely argue that there is a correlative relationship - more ice cream consumption is causing more drownings, right?
Nah, that's stupid. Of course it is.
What's really going on in that scenario is that there are
more people swimming in the summer
than there are in any other month. The increase of ice cream consumption is also because
it is hotter and people like eating cold things in hotter months
. The claim that greater ice cream consumption equals more drownings is a
spurious
claim because it doesn't acknowledge that there are other factors influencing drownings. In fact, ice cream consumption has nothing to do with it! They are seperate matters (x and y respectively) influenced by a third factor (z).
Your matter of race offering up a matter of prediction can be made by using what is referred to as "logistical regression" which allows you to use nominal information (race) and compare it to inerval/ratio numbers (violent crime) while getting what are called "predictors." Here you are correct - you can use this data to predict, based on race, if a place may be more dangerous. However, the real danger in your statement is that you're making a very generalizing statement by making it, seemingly, an argument about
race
.
The reality of the situation is that the majority of the cities in the US have majority minority populations. Cities are also happen to have the highest poverty rates, highest unemployment rates, lowest graduation rates - the list goes on. While you can argue that race is the greatest "predictor," and to be honest I don't know if that's either true or fair (care to cite your study or how you came to that conclusion? Your listing is basically demographic in nature and thusly cannot by itself count as a "predictor" without further work being done on it), if you are going to make a correlative argument, as you have here, you must also take those categories into consideration.
Before you attempt to identify me as a "lib" or any other category, I am not arguing from liberal or conservative principles. These are mathematical and scientific principles that are largely untainted by political perspective. It's a basic question of numbers and validity of numbers in use - your use of the numbers are invalid due to spurious arguments. X (race) does not cause Y (crime) - there are other factors that must be introduced and controlled for in order to arrive at any conclusion which would result in such a statement.. which you clearly have not done here.
And while I'm here on the topic, here are some stats taken directly from Bureau of Just Statistics:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/race.htm#orace
- looking at these numbers, you can clearly see a couple of things with regards to
trends
: 1. crime stats go up and down, not in equal numbers, but according to national crime trends pretty equally in all ethnic pairings. 2. Most violent crimes are committed against members of the same ethnic group. 3. Most murders are definately committed by members of the same ethnic group. 4. The numbers, based on percentages, indicates that blacks and whites have extremely similar offense rates according to trend data.
Well, I think that's a pretty decent response. Have a good day now! |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:11 pm |
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Domet
F L I N T O I D
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And a final note, specifically with reference to Dave Starr and the other arguments regarding "gang banging" or "check babies."
Honestly? No, I mean it seriously - honestly?
I grew up in a very differeny world that those who lived in Flint. Both of my parents worked full time - one was a mechanic, the other a bus driver also doing massage therapy on the side to earn extra money. I learned in this world that when I grew up I had opportunities, I could be or do anything that I wanted. My family was always employed and I lived in a primarily white area where employment numbers were pretty good.
It doesn't come down to wanting to take the easy or the lazy way out. To be honest, I think the NAACP has forgotten a lot about themselves and their mission, and as a result they come out with these crazy statements about wanting to instill martial law as though suspending civil liberties are going to, for a second, make anything better for anybody. When you grow up in a world that has a 16% unemployment rate (and that counts people who are working in the formal economy, getting paid checks not under the table or people who are still looking for work - the actual "unemployed" number is likely much larger than that) with schools that have poor student/teacher ratios or older text books that haven't been updated in years, you learn a number of different things about life.
The guy on the corner selling drugs has a nice car, has money for his family, never worries about anything except other sellers or the police, you learn something different about life that I would have never learned growing up in Flushing. The informal economy, although "awful" to a lot of nice folks living in surburbs, is a living reality for people growing up in cities. In some situations, it is the only way to make a living - it is the only way to survive. In an area like Flint where Industry has declined, Services have increased, hours have been cut to an average of 24 a week at minimum wage, things get tough. Ever try to survive on 24 hours a week at minimum wage? It can get to be quite difficult.
Fact of the matter is that the role models anywhere are people who are successful and are doing well. When you see somebody that is doing well, you gotta think they are doing something right, especially while growing up in a world where material possessions are more important than moral fortitude. What we are doing here in Flint is the same old American passtime of blaming the victims, locking them up and watching what happens as the cities crumble. I don't know what the answer is, but what we are doing now certainly can't be it. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:31 pm |
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twotap
F L I N T O I D
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| Domet nice to meet you back. Very poetic thought out response which certainly has merit. Im sure we are all impressed. Problem is you are leaving out the obvious. Every city with a high black population has a high crime rate. Pick a city any city check its crime stats and see whos commiting the crimes. Thats what the original premise of this thread was and the fact that too many male blacks or the gals they impregnate dont seem to give a crap. The message from the NAACP should be stop the madness start taking responsiblity for your lives and actions cause if your waiting for Jesse J or Al Sharpton Or Barack or Whitey or for that matter the NAACP itself to straighten out your predicament your gonna have a long wait. |
_________________
"If you like your current healthcare you can keep it, Period"!!
Barack Hussein Obama--- multiple times. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:46 pm |
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Adam
F L I N T O I D
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WHO COMMITS THE MOST CRIMES -- WHITES, BLACKS OR OTHER MINORITIES?
THE FACTS
Blacks, who represent just 12.5% of the U.S. population, account for a disproportionate share of violent crime.
Any so called non racist should proably open up their eyes if they don't think there's more of a problem with crime in black America than white America because it's not the KKK that are killing black males it's black males who are in general killing black males.
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 4:00 pm |
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Domet
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
twotap schreef:
Problem is you are leaving out the obvious. Every city with a high black population has a high crime rate. Pick a city any city check its crime stats and see whos commiting the crimes.
I didn't leave that out at all. In fact, what I said was:
quote:
domet schreef:
The reality of the situation is that the majority of the cities in the US have majority minority populations. Cities are also happen to have the highest poverty rates, highest unemployment rates, lowest graduation rates - the list goes on. While you can argue that race is the greatest "predictor," and to be honest I don't know if that's either true or fair (care to cite your study or how you came to that conclusion? Your listing is basically demographic in nature and thusly cannot by itself count as a "predictor" without further work being done on it), if you are going to make a correlative argument, as you have here, you must also take those categories into consideration.
I am quite aware of the crime rates in the city of Flint. I am currently running numbers on Flint Crime Stats going back to 1971 and comparing them for correlation data to the Census going back to the same date. My awareness of crime stats in cities around the country is pretty solid. The argument, however, was that the crime rate is predicated by a number of things, not specifically race in general.
quote:
twotap schreef:
The message from the NAACP should be stop the madness start taking responsiblity for your lives and actions cause if your waiting for Jesse J or Al Sharpton Or Barack or Whitey or for that matter the NAACP itself to straighten out your predicament your gonna have a long wait.
A sentiment I can agree with. Unfortunately, however (and this may be where we disagree) I think that it isn't soley a matter of the self. When addressing issues of crime, or any societal ill, we must approach the root of the problem and try to understand the underlying things which help generate this environment of higher crime. There is no disagreement between us with regards to how much crime there is in Flint, but I feel we may find our differences in how to approach the problem in general.
And to our dear comrade, Adam:
quote:
Adam schreef:
THE FACTS Blacks, who represent just 12.5% of the U.S. population, account for a disproportionate share of violent crime.
The problem with BJS numbers is that sometimes it is difficult to really see what they are telling us. If you look at the actual numbers presented here (where I linked earlier)
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/race.htm#orace
you will see clearly that the proportionate numbers of blacks v. whites in total crime rate trends (1976-2005) are extremely similar. Your "facts" are based off of ratios concerning "per 100,000 population." The "population" of blacks is substantially smaller than the population of whites, so the "violent rates per 100,000 within the Black Population" is going to appear extremely high compared to ours. That's a pure number game there and if you are incapable of seeing that, I don't know what else to do for ya. I will say it again:
Speaking in terms of ratios, our actual violent crime rates are extremely similar, especially when following trend data. The graphs and data you are referring to, according the BJS Methodologies (as published on their website), are based on populations - black population, white population are mutally exclusive and show disproportianate numbers based on that reasoning.
Your next statement is right though, most violent crimes are intraracial, not inter. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 4:27 pm |
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Dave Starr
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Domet schreef:
And a final note, specifically with reference to Dave Starr and the other arguments regarding "gang banging" or "check babies."
Honestly? No, I mean it seriously - honestly?
Yes, I do. A neighbor, who recently moved, was a single black woman 31 years old with 8 kids, ages 1 to 16. She admitted to me and other neighbors that she didn't know who the fathers of at least 3 of them were.
Another former neighbor stated many times that he was too smart to get his hands dirty working for wages. He much preferred selling drugs to pay for his Escalade. He also didn't seem to mind constantly looking over his shoulder for either the police or rival dealers. BTW, he was evicted for not paying his rent.
quote:
Fact of the matter is that the role models anywhere are people who are successful and are doing well. When you see somebody that is doing well, you gotta think they are doing something right, especially while growing up in a world where material possessions are more important than moral fortitude. What we are doing here in Flint is the same old American passtime of blaming the victims, locking them up and watching what happens as the cities crumble. I don't know what the answer is, but what we are doing now certainly can't be it.
Role models here are the dealers with the big cars & pockets full of cash & drugs. How are they victims when they willingly choose that life style? |
_________________
I used to care, but I take a pill for that now.
Pushing buttons sure can be fun.
When a lion wants to go somewhere, he doesn’t worry about how many hyenas are in the way.
Paddle faster, I hear banjos. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:00 pm |
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Adam
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Domet schreef:
The problem with BJS numbers is that sometimes it is difficult to really see what they are telling us. If you look at the actual numbers presented here (where I linked earlier)
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/race.htm#orace
you will see clearly that the proportionate numbers of blacks v. whites in total crime rate trends (1976-2005) are extremely similar. Your "facts" are based off of ratios concerning "per 100,000 population." The "population" of blacks is substantially smaller than the population of whites, so the "violent rates per 100,000 within the Black Population" is going to appear extremely high compared to ours. That's a pure number game there and if you are incapable of seeing that, I don't know what else to do for ya. I will say it again:
Speaking in terms of ratios, our actual violent crime rates are extremely similar, especially when following trend data. The graphs and data you are referring to, according the BJS Methodologies (as published on their website), are based on populations - black population, white population are mutally exclusive and show disproportianate numbers based on that reasoning.
Your next statement is right though, most violent crimes are intraracial, not inter.
There are more white people than black so that is why the total crime numbers even out when you look at the overall crime numbers. if you look at the crime rate it's obvious black people have a higher crime rate. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:12 pm |
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Domet
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Dave Starr schreef:
Yes, I do. A neighbor, who recently moved, was a single black woman 31 years old with 8 kids, ages 1 to 16. She admitted to me and other neighbors that she didn't know who the fathers of at least 3 of them were.
Anecdote does not the complete story make. You have an anecdote where you know some people who abused the welfare system, I have some of those who used it to get quick boost and are leading much more successful lives now - there really isn't a compromise between the two stories. Unfortunately, these experiences in large part help shape our lives and color our view of the world causing us to be, in large part, blind or shortsighted to the happenings around us.
There is no doubt that there are people who abuse the system. I think it's pretty important to put welfare in conext, though, rather just throwing it around as a negative modifier. I don't want to "hijack" the thread by having a detailed conversation about it now, but I will say that there is a lot more a persons life on welfare than just popin' out kids to get more money in the mail. In general, I feel that view expresses a very limited outlook on the matter.
quote:
Dave Starr schreef:
Another former neighbor stated many times that he was too smart to get his hands dirty working for wages. He much preferred selling drugs to pay for his Escalade. He also didn't seem to mind constantly looking over his shoulder for either the police or rival dealers. BTW, he was evicted for not paying his rent.
You're absolutely correct, these people are making decision to work these professions. However, that is in many ways the point I was trying to make. Where I grew up and lived most of my life, I came to believe that there is something very wrong about committing crimes. I think, though, that it is important to ask why people would want to engage in crimes? How can a man, such as your neighbor, simply not "mind constantly looking over his shoulder?" I would be incredibly uncomfortable in that situation, I wouldn't know how to handle myself entirely.
So yes, it is true that people are making decisions to do these things. Unfortunately they are living in areas where such activities are much more acceptable. No, I don't mean mothers are raising their kids to be criminals, and I certainly don't think that neighborhoods simply accept criminals because "they're just makin' it too." What I do believe, however, is that they grow up in an area where home break-ins are a fact of life, where gangs operate as a social support network, where masculinity is providing for the girl but defending your honor at all costs - there is a different world of thinking which has colored the view of people growing up in today's cities. That cannot be discounted when we consider why some people do the things they do.
quote:
Adam schreef:
There are more white people than black so that is why the total crime numbers even out when you look at the overall crime numbers. if you look at the crime rate it's obvious black people have a higher crime rate.
That isn't obvious =/. Does the black population have the highest crime rate when isolated from the white population? Yes, they do.
My answer really comes down to this:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/oracetab.htm
The top part are your percentages. The bottom part are the relative numbers. You will see that between white and black populations, numbers of offenders are extremely similar. There are fewer Black people in the US, so their percentage number look extremely exaggerated. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:48 pm |
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back again
F L I N T O I D
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DAVE, i am highly disappointed in you. now i know why you didn't leave. you couldn't. by the way, regardless of where you live, you are not qualified to say who you THINK the role models are around there UNLESS you have asked and judging from your tone and other ignorant comments there is no way you'd have the balls to survey every kid 18 and below on your street.
in case you do, i'll make a bet with you right now and you can put your ignorant comment to a test. $100.00 says your wrong. just prove you actually did the survey. i will put someone in contact with you to insure your truthfulness. got the balls tough talking dude? or are you just another tough talking pussy? |
_________________
even a small act of goodness may be a tiny raft of salvation across the treacherous gulf of sin, but one who drinks the wine of selfishness, and dances on the little boat of meaness, sinks in the ocean of ignorance.
P.Y. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:05 pm |
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Adam
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Domet schreef:
My answer really comes down to this:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/oracetab.htm
The top part are your percentages. The bottom part are the relative numbers. You will see that between white and black populations, numbers of offenders are extremely similar. There are fewer Black people in the US, so their percentage number look extremely exaggerated.
The bottom part is total number of crimes by race. Black people commit about the same/even more homicides even though they are heavily out numbered by whites. |
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Sun Jul 19, 2009 9:12 pm |
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Dave Starr
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
back again schreef:
DAVE, i am highly disappointed in you. now i know why you didn't leave. you couldn't. by the way, regardless of where you live, you are not qualified to say who you THINK the role models are around there UNLESS you have asked and judging from your tone and other ignorant comments there is no way you'd have the balls to survey every kid 18 and below on your street.
in case you do, i'll make a bet with you right now and you can put your ignorant comment to a test. $100.00 says your wrong. just prove you actually did the survey. i will put someone in contact with you to insure your truthfulness. got the balls tough talking dude? or are you just another tough talking pussy?
I didn't leave because this is my home. It's where i raised my children & where I'll stay until I die. It's the place where my wife was beaten almost to death in the driveway. It's the place where she said she wanted to stay.
Are you saying that I can't relate to blacks because I'm white? I HEARD that guy say he was too smart to work. I HEARD the lady say she didn't know who the father of a couple of her kids were. There was no survey; just things that came up in conversations. On our block, everyone knows everyone else, and what they do for a living. The questionable ones know to leave us alone, because thy know we call 911 when something's going on.
I'm not talking tough; I'm speaking from my experiences of living in this house since 1968. We didn't run when crime started increasing around here, we didn't run when my wife was almost killed, and we're not running now. We chose to stay. The next time you're in Flint, I'll take you around the block & introduce you to everyone. You can ask them what they think of us. Personally, I couldn't care less what you, or anyone else thinks of me.
Thanks for cheering me up; today's my mother in law's funeral. |
_________________
I used to care, but I take a pill for that now.
Pushing buttons sure can be fun.
When a lion wants to go somewhere, he doesn’t worry about how many hyenas are in the way.
Paddle faster, I hear banjos. |
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Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:34 am |
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twotap
F L I N T O I D
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| Sorry to hear of your loss Dave. This thread is turning pretty ugly I would say its time to move on at least for me. |
_________________
"If you like your current healthcare you can keep it, Period"!!
Barack Hussein Obama--- multiple times. |
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Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:46 am |
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mutt of flint
F L I N T O I D
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| In other words, twotap,adam, get rid of blacks, get rid of crime? That's not racist? The naacp does state a message of personal empowermeant, pride, and responsibility. Like I said, if obama were dropping "yo yo yo's" he wouldn't have gotten elected. I reccommend watching crash. It will blow your mind. I also reccommend actually reading the mans statment. He answers your questions before you state them |
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I'm not a polarized. deal with it. |
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Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:51 am |
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Adam
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
mutt of flint schreef:
In other words, twotap,adam, get rid of blacks, get rid of crime? That's not racist? The naacp does state a message of personal empowermeant, pride, and responsibility. Like I said, if obama were dropping "yo yo yo's" he wouldn't have gotten elected. I reccommend watching crash. It will blow your mind. I also reccommend actually reading the mans statment. He answers your questions before you state them
If you think it's racist to state the fact that black people have a higher crime rate that's your perogative. I think what's racist is to sit back and ignore the problem while black people shoot each other up. Black on black murders barely even makes the headlines in Flint unless it's a pastor or child that dies. I don't think people like you who try and ignore the stats are any help to the problem while another young black male gets gunned down every week or every other week in places like the north end of Flint. |
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Mon Jul 20, 2009 8:53 am |
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