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http://www.rand.org/news/press/2008/07/29/index.html
U.S. Should Rethink "War On Terrorism" Strategy to Deal with Resurgent Al Qaida
Current U.S. strategy against the terrorist group al Qaida has not been successful in significantly undermining the group's capabilities, according to a new RAND Corporation study issued today.
Al Qaida has been involved in more terrorist attacks since Sept. 11, 2001, than it was during its prior history and the group's attacks since then have spanned an increasingly broader range of targets in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa, according to researchers.
In looking at how other terrorist groups have ended, the RAND study found that most terrorist groups end either because they join the political process, or because local police and intelligence efforts arrest or kill key members. Police and intelligence agencies, rather than the military, should be the tip of the spear against al Qaida in most of the world, and the United States should abandon the use of the phrase "war on terrorism," researchers concluded.
"The United States cannot conduct an effective long-term counterterrorism campaign against al Qaida or other terrorist groups without understanding how terrorist groups end," said Seth Jones, the study's lead author and a political scientist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. "In most cases, military force isn't the best instrument."
The comprehensive study analyzes 648 terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006, drawing from a terrorism database maintained by RAND and the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. The most common way that terrorist groups end -- 43 percent -- was via a transition to the political process. However, the possibility of a political solution is more likely if the group has narrow goals, rather than a broad, sweeping agenda like al Qaida possesses.
The second most common way that terrorist groups end -- 40 percent -- was through police and intelligence services either apprehending or killing the key leaders of these groups. Policing is especially effective in dealing with terrorists because police have a permanent presence in cities that enables them to efficiently gather information, Jones said.
Military force was effective in only 7 percent of the cases examined; in most instances, military force is too blunt an instrument to be successful against terrorist groups, although it can be useful for quelling insurgencies in which the terrorist groups are large, well-armed and well-organized, according to researchers. In a number of cases, the groups end because they become splintered, with members joining other groups or forming new factions. Terrorist groups achieved victory in only 10 percent of the cases studied.
Jones says the study has crucial implications for U.S. strategy in dealing with al Qaida and other terrorist groups. Since al Qaida's goal is the establishment of a pan-Islamic caliphate, a political solution or negotiated settlement with governments in the Middle East is highly unlikely. The terrorist organization also has made numerous enemies and does not enjoy the kind of mass support received by other organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, largely because al Qaida has not engaged in sponsoring any welfare services, medical clinics, or hospitals.
The study recommends the United States should adopt a two-front strategy: rely on policing and intelligence work to root out the terrorist leaders in Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East, and involve military force -- though not necessarily the U.S. military -- when insurgencies are involved.
The United States also should avoid the use of the term, "war on terror," and replace it with the term "counterterrorism." Nearly every U.S. ally, including the United Kingdom and Australia, has stopped using "war on terror," and Jones said it's more than a mere matter of semantics.
"The term we use to describe our strategy toward terrorists is important, because it affects what kinds of forces you use," Jones said. "Terrorists should be perceived and described as criminals, not holy warriors, and our analysis suggests that there is no battlefield solution to terrorism."
Among the other findings, the study notes:
Religious terrorist groups take longer to eliminate than other groups. Since 1968, approximately 62 percent of all terrorist groups have ended, while only 32 percent of religious terrorist groups have done so.
No religious terrorist group has achieved victory since 1968.
Size is an important predictor of a groups' fate. Large groups of more than 10,000 members have been victorious more than 25 percent of the time, while victory is rare when groups are smaller than 1,000 members.
There is no statistical correlation between the duration of a terrorist group and ideological motivation, economic conditions, regime type or the breadth of terrorist goals.
Terrorist groups that become involved in an insurgency do not end easily. Nearly 50 percent of the time they end with a negotiated settlement with the government, 25 percent of the time they achieved victory and 19 percent of the time, military groups defeated them.
Terrorist groups from upper-income countries are much more likely to be left-wing or nationalistic, and much less likely to be motivated by religion.
"The United States has the necessary instruments to defeat al Qaida, it just needs to shift its strategy and keep in mind that terrorist groups are not eradicated overnight," Jones said.
The study, "How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qaida," can be found at www.rand.org.
The report was prepared by the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center that does research for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands and other defense agencies. |
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Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:18 pm |
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MikeInGB
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Again. Excellent information that is consistent with everything I've learned about terrorism and guerilla/insurgent tactics.
It stops just short of the real, harsh truth: You can't defeat an insurgency (unless you flatten the place) but you can prevent one. That is where we screwed up. This whole operation was FUBAR within months of the invasion and now we get to enjoy the lovely process of hanging others out to dry for the original mistakes of a few. Not to mention the wasted lives and treasure because people are too proud (or brazenly stupid) to know they've made a mistake and change course accordingly. |
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Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:35 pm |
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Public D
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Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:50 am |
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strattonsigns
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Yeah, we should have demanded a meeting with bin Laden after 9/11 and negotiated a settlement with him, maybe just gave up Israel or something to that effect. Maybe if we just demilitarized our country all together and turned in all of our personal weapons and gave away all of our monies to the Africans and Arabs around the globe they would be happy?
Then we could cure Aids, make the ocean levels drop, start driving cars powered by air? Yeah, that's the ticket..then we'll be one happy little world.
I remember a saying from a while ago, it said "America" "Love it or Leave it"
If you people are so goddamned unhappy living in the most proserous country the world has ever known.......by all means MOVE.
WE have acheived more success in 250 or so years than any other country EVER. If all these other forms of government are so superior to a free Democracy and a Capitalistic society why do they have their collective friggin hands out? |
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Thu Aug 07, 2008 4:05 pm |
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Adam Ford
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| The way things are going we won't be able to afford a military in 20 years and people will have to sell their guns for scrap metal to buy food. |
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Adam Ford
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Thu Aug 07, 2008 4:54 pm |
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Dave Starr
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| Naw, we'll just shoot our food. Squirrel isn't all that bad. |
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I used to care, but I take a pill for that now.
Pushing buttons sure can be fun.
When a lion wants to go somewhere, he doesn’t worry about how many hyenas are in the way.
Paddle faster, I hear banjos. |
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Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:18 pm |
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Adam Ford
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| Make sure you buy all the ammo you need now. Prices sure are going up. |
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Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:39 pm |
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MikeInGB
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| Strattonsigns, I'm not sure what your little rant is referring to but it isn't the topic at hand or the original article posted. Did you forget to take your meds or something? |
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Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:16 pm |
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Dave Starr
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quote:
Adam Ford schreef:
Make sure you buy all the ammo you need now. Prices sure are going up.
I reload. Saves 50% - 75% depending on the caliber. |
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I used to care, but I take a pill for that now.
Pushing buttons sure can be fun.
When a lion wants to go somewhere, he doesn’t worry about how many hyenas are in the way.
Paddle faster, I hear banjos. |
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Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:08 am |
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Demeralda
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Dissent is not only permitted but NECESSARY for democracy to work well.
If you can't live with that, maybe you're the one who should head elsewhere. A nice plutocracy somewhere, perhaps? Because that's what you're enjoying now.
Russia might be just the ticket... after all, no one dare criticize Putin, eh? |
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I'm no model lady. A model's just an imitation of the real thing. - Mae West |
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Fri Aug 08, 2008 10:26 am |
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Kevin McKague
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| Hallelujah pilgrim! Tell it, sista D! Well put! |
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Fri Aug 08, 2008 1:36 pm |
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Public D
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Fri Aug 08, 2008 2:51 pm |
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andi03
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What's the internet joke? "The USDA can find the ONE cow that is responsible for the spreading of Mad Cow Disease and put it down but we can't find Osama Bin Laden?"
Maybe we should give that amount of money that we have spent in military funding to the USDA, then and only then would the war be over....<sigh> |
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Build a bridge and get over it! |
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Sat Aug 09, 2008 6:19 am |
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