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Demeralda
F L I N T O I D
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II. LITERATURE REVIEW
The empirical literature addressing the relationship
between crime and various measures of economic deprivation
(such as income inequality, poverty, and unemployment) is
extensive. The brief literature review that follows does not
attempt to be exhaustive, but rather, highlights various
approaches to the issue. Land et al. (1990), Kovandzic et al.
(1998), and Patterson (1991) provide more systematic reviews
of the literature. It is important to note that the question that
I pose in this paper (namely, what are the relative victimization
rates of the rich and the poor and how has this changed
over time?) differs in its thrust from most of the existing
literature. Most of the papers discussed below focus primarily
on the relationship between economic deprivation and the
amount of crime in an area, without specific concern for
whether the victims are poor or rich.
Broadly speaking, the existing empirical research on
the topic has generally adopted one of three estimation strategies.
The most common approach has been cross-sectional
analyses of American cities, metropolitan areas, counties, or
states. Examples of this approach are Bailey (1984), Blau and
Blau (1982), Glaeser et al. (1996), Kovandzic et al. (1998),
Kposowa et al. (1995), Land et al. (1990), Messner (1982),
Simpson (1985), and Williams (1984). Results vary widely
across these studies. In some cases, greater income inequality
(Blau and Blau 1982; Kposowa et al. 1995; Sampson 1985;
Simpson 1985) or increased poverty rates (Bailey 1984; Jackson
1984; Williams 1984; Land et al. 1990) are associated with
higher crime rates. A number of other papers find statistically
insignificant coefficients on either income inequality (Bailey
1984; Messner 1982; Williams 1984) or poverty (Blau and
Blau 1982; Simpson 1985). In a few cases, the sign on poverty
(Kposowa et al. 1995; Messner 1982) is reversed.
There are a number of important limitations to
studies of this kind. First, they rely on officially reported
crime data. Differences in police recording procedures
make cross-jurisdiction comparisons troublesome (see, for
example, O’Brien [1985]).3 A second limitation of such studies
is the difficulty of adequately controlling for unobserved
characteristics of jurisdictions that are correlated both with
income variables and with crime rates.
I think you see my point  Great intellectuals have been working on this for years and have no consensus.
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittTheChangingRelationship1999.pdf
Here's the entire paper if anyone is interested. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:35 am |
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last time here
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you GO Demeralda!!!!!  |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:46 am |
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Ted Jankowski
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Gumby schreef:
No one is apologizing for anything.
If you break the law go to jail.
But if we ignore the reasons and do nothing to solve them history is bound to repeat itself. If you want to hide under a rock and do nothing feel free but realize better people than you are trying to solve the problem.
Exactly! If we fail to do anything to solve the REAL reason for Crime. We will repeat it. The God's honest truth is "Crime is a matter of the heart!" It is not up to government to change a persons heart. That is the Job of the churches. Poverty and unemployment are things Government plays with to control the masses. If you want to get out of Poverty and beat the Government and get employed. You will get and education and go to work!
If your're full of self pity, and refuse to change your attitudes. YOu'll spend your time crying how you have rape, rob and steal to get your drugs because no one will give your uneducated, criminal ass a job!
Oh and an Apologist is: authors, writers, editors of scientific logs or academic journals, and leaders known for taking on the points in arguments, conflicts or positions that are either placed under popular scrutinies or viewed under persecutory examinations. The term comes from the Greek word apologia, meaning a speaking in defense.
Doesn't mean your apoligising for anyone. But, the position you've taken is one of making excuses for criminal behavoir. Not people taking resopnsibility for actions.
Your saying environment plays a role. I argee with the idea. But, I'm looking at what created the environment? To Blame poverty and Unemployment for Crime when for the most part this is a situation that anyone can lift themselves out of. Is a cop out! You didn't have to have 4 kids by different dad's. You didn't have to drop out of high school and deal drugs on the corner. You didn't have to snatch purses and rob little old ladies end up in jail. Then after all this start crying you wouldn't have committed the crimes if you could have just found a job.
What job does a 13/14/15 year old need?
Demeralda: So your saying, that there is no way to prove that poverty and unemployment contribute to crime because the reporting is different in different municipalites.. but you believe it does anyway? Sorry, but that doesn't make sense to me.
You ignore the the fact that the Majority of people that have lived in poverty ARE NOT CRIMINALS! because a few blame thier upbringing for thier crime. They still made a conscience decsion to commit the crime!
Hmm, why has crime in flint dropped within the last year? Drastically might I add! Was it because our Unemployment rate came down drastically? Was it because our poverty rate came down drastically? NIETHER HAVE! ONly one thing happened! It had nothing to do with Poverty or Unemployment! What do you attribute the latest 60 Percent drop in Crime? You can't say all these criminals got jobs, or all of a sudden the multi millionare mayor has just became every living in poverty's sugar daddy and he is taking care of their needs. But, we all know both are not true.
I'll leave you with that to think about. According to the theorem that Poverty and Unemployment are the causes for crime. Then why is crime going down in Flint when Poverty and Unemployment haven't changed?
And yes, I purposely used a math term! Because statistically, if Poverty and Unemployment casues or affects crime. Then Higher unemployment or higher poverty should affect the crime rate! Meaning if either go up. Then Crime would go up! If poverty and Unemployment go down. Then Crime would go down. Cause and effect. For every action there is a reaction. If it is a cause if it contributes, then it should go up or down when either of those are affected or change. Which, neither have changed. So why is crime going down this year? Is it because Flint hired 60 more police officers? We know that with the hiring of 50 crime doubled. So please explain why Crime went down if poverty and unemployment have not! |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:53 am |
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last time here
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thats simple....more good police.....that has nothing to do with
demeralda's post...man.....calm down teddy...calm down. 
your reasoning is all over the place......
and 2taps gonna confuse it even more with his next post!!!!
yup!!!
Last edited by last time here on Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:26 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:03 pm |
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Demeralda
F L I N T O I D
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Because you've just chosen TWO factors (out of HUNDREDS) and decided those will completely determine the outcome. IT IS NOT THAT SIMPLE!!
I've never said that they are the sole causes, but they DO play a role! Look at the thing I posted -- the only point was to illustrate that he cites 14 different authors who've studied the problem and the results are still INCONCLUSIVE.
I started writing something really long, but I just can't explain what is totally obvious to me. Ted, it seems that you veer off into other subjects and poorly paraphrase my comments when it doesn't work for you. All I can say is you're looking for direct correlation between our county or city employment rate (which has nothing to do with what it might be in say, Beecher), and the same with poverty, and then you've extrapolated the conclusion you want. Furthermore, "crime is down"... there are lots of ways to make it appear so when it's not. Those two things alone DO NOT and CANNOT explain EVERYTHING. But as my article above states, those things are intertwined with dozens of other factors, which makes it nearly impossible to treat any of them as independent variables. MEANING: You can't just say oh, it's not poverty, when poverty also includes broken homes, bad schools, insular populations, lack of opportunity, etc. etc. etc. etc. ad nauseum! |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:43 pm |
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twotap
F L I N T O I D
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Hey how about running a little Statistical Process Control on the ranks of the MS13 members and see what kind of conclusion ya come to. Yup they are bad ass criminals alright.  |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:06 pm |
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Gumby
F L I N T O I D
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| What we need is more primary prevention (which is working on the problem before it is a problem) not tertiary prevention (more jails). Problem is it is hard to get funding from people who have term limits that expire before we will see results from the primary prevention program. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:55 pm |
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twotap
F L I N T O I D
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Ah yes the old "If We Only Had More Dollars" The Solution to every problem. OK if ya had em how would ya spend em? Fill us in on your plan  |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:21 pm |
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Dave Starr
F L I N T O I D
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When a problem arises, deal with it in a way that ensures that particular problem will never resurface again.
Translation: Put 'em in the ground. |
_________________
I used to care, but I take a pill for that now.
Pushing buttons sure can be fun.
When a lion wants to go somewhere, he doesn’t worry about how many hyenas are in the way.
Paddle faster, I hear banjos. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:31 pm |
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Gumby
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Ah yes the old "If We Only Had More Dollars" The Solution to every problem. OK if ya had em how would ya spend em? Fill us in on your plan
Well the old way of throwing money into prisons is really working out right now. But we would rather follow the status quo even though it obviously doesn't work.
Primary prevention programs are much cheaper in the long run. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:36 pm |
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Demeralda
F L I N T O I D
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| Also true of dealing with the mentally ill (who often end up criminalized). It would be so much easier to make sure they're getting the help they need beforehand instead of waiting for them to commit a crime. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:03 pm |
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Dave Starr
F L I N T O I D
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How would you have prevented this young man from getting to the point where he did what he did?
A teenager is raised in a very religious family. The parents and his sisters are extremely nice people. Unfortunately, he isn't. He hangs out with young thugs, drinks, smokes weed and maybe crack. At his 13th birthday, he tells his parents he is an adult and is no longer subject to his authority. One summer, shortly before his 17th birthday, he comes home after midnight, drunk & possibly high. His parents, not believing in drugs & alcohol, and trying tough love, will not let him in the house. He sits on the front porch, and at 3:30am, sees the lady across the street coming out to go to work.
He decides he wants the car, so he crosses the street, & knocks the lady down. Being angry over getting locked out, he takes it out on the lady and begins beating & stomping on her. Her jaw is broken in 3 places, her eye socket is broken & one eye moved out of place. Her nose is smashed flat. On her neck are 10 bruises; 4 on each side, 2 on the back, exactly matching where his fingers were as he beat her face into the pavement. on her arm is a perfect imprint of his sneaker.
At the hospital, the doctors are unsure if the lady will live. Her neck and throat have suffered severe soft tissue damage, and if swelling continues the swelling may choke her to death. Because of the swelling, a tracheotomy can't be done. They are afraid her skull is fractured, but cant do CAT scan, because if she lays down flat, she can't breathe due to the swelling. She spends 5 days in intensive care, the first 48 hours sitting up so she can breathe. After the swelling subsides, they do a trach, try to put her jaw back together, and wire her jaw shut. After spending another week in a regular room, she goes home.
The jaw reconstruction didn't work well, so she's referred to U of M hospital in Ann Arbor. After weekly visits to take pictures, a CAT scan, and several consultations to decide on a plan, she undergoes 7 hours of surgery. The Doctors take a piece of bone from her hip, graft it into her jaw & put in plates & screws. One of the breaks is at the very top of the jawbone, where it connects to her skull. Because of the location, nothing can be done, and hopefully the jaw muscles will hold that side in place. Her jaw is wired again for 6 months. Altogether, it's 18 months to the day before she's finally done with Doctors & hospitals. 18 months of eating through a straw.
The kid was caught and sentenced to 7 - 15 years. He served 8 years.
Now, what could have been done to keep this kid from turning out the way he did?
This is all true. The lady is my wife. |
_________________
I used to care, but I take a pill for that now.
Pushing buttons sure can be fun.
When a lion wants to go somewhere, he doesn’t worry about how many hyenas are in the way.
Paddle faster, I hear banjos. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:13 pm |
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Opinionated
F L I N T O I D
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Good story, Dave. Hope things are better with your wife.
You asked what could have been done to keep this kid from turning out the way he did? The minute you find out he's hanging with these young thugs, and that he drinks, smokes weed, and maybe crack, steer him right. Don't let him hang out, drink, and smoke. Keep his ass at home!
On his 13th birthday, when he tells his parents he's an adult and no longer subject to his authority, SHOW him who the adult is. Put your foot down. Take away everything he has, until he learns better. That's how we were brought up. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:22 pm |
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twotap
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
Primary prevention programs are much cheaper in the long run.
Well OK thats possible, show us an example of some primary prevention programs that have been proven to be successful. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:35 pm |
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twotap
F L I N T O I D
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quote:
This is all true. The lady is my wife.
What a sad story you and your wife have seen enough tragedy for a lifetime. I will refrain from stating what I think about the punk being back in society as I already probably have the label of mean spirited radical by some on this forum. |
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Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:42 pm |
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