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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:20 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:30 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Cities where crime is soaring
Thomas C. Frohlich and Alexander Kent, 24/7 Wall St. 10:23 a.m. EST February 10, 2015
Corrections and clarifications: Due to a data processing error, an earlier version of this article identified Monroe, Mich., and later Monroe, La., as areas where crime is soaring. In fact, neither Monroe, Mich., nor Monroe, La., should have been included.
The United States is becoming safer, with crime levels dropping nearly every year. Between 1991 and 2013, the U.S. violent crime rate has fallen by nearly 52%. Since 2009, the nation's violent crime rate has declined from 429.4 to 367.9 incidents per 100,000 people, a decrease of 14.3%.
While the prevalence of violent crime — which includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault — has declined in many of the nation's metropolitan areas, in some regions it has increased. In Bismarck, North Dakota, the violent crime rate grew by nearly 160% — from 222.1 cases per 100,000 people in 2009 to 575.5 in 2013. Based on figures published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), these are the metropolitan areas with the greatest increases in the violent crime rate.
It remains difficult to precisely determine the crime levels in particular areas. And the exact relationship between crime and the economy is similarly unclear. The relationship is complex and it can go both ways, said John Roman, senior fellow at the Urban Institute. "When the economy is bad, people typically stay home more, and because they're home, their house is less likely to be burgled." It is also possible that "when the economy gets better and people have more money and are out-and-about more, you increase the targets of violence."
In some of the metro areas where violent crime rose the most, the economy has been especially strong. For example, in Bismarck, North Dakota, the economy grew as a result of the regional oil boom. Two other metro areas, Columbus, Indiana, and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, have also experienced strong growth in recent years. All three metro areas had unemployment rates far below the national rate of 7.4% in 2013.
However, in other areas with rising violent crime rates several economic factors were quite poor. In four of the 10 metro areas, for example, more than 8% of workers were unemployed in 2013, well above the national rate. The 2013 median household income was also less than the national figure of $52,250 in four of the cities where crime has been soaring.
One of the hidden factors that could be driving up crime rates in areas with thriving economies may be shifting local demographics, Roman explained. "The biggest predictor of committing a criminal act is being young, male, and relatively low-skilled. In boom towns, you often get a bunch of young men with low skill who come in to fill construction and energy jobs." As a result, it is not organized criminals driving up crime rates as much as it is likely younger men struggling to find work, Roman said.
Generally, aggravated assault was the most reported violent crime in 2013, accounting for more than 62% of overall incidents. This was especially the case in many of the areas that led the nation with soaring violent crime rates. While the number of aggravated assaults fell across the nation between 2009 and 2013, all of these areas had a dramatic increase in the assault rate.
Aside from changing demographics, another factor that may affect crime statistics may be the area's reporting trends. According to Roman, if police signal they are cracking down on crimes such as domestic violence, they may be able to encourage more people to report a crime. Policing strategies are among the most important factors, according to Roman. Police departments need to be "working with the community and not just policing it." This means implementing policies that work towards a "less segregated and more integrated [community] with more opportunities for more people."
Based on figures published by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 metropolitan statistical areas where crime rates rose the most between 2009 and 2013. In order to be considered, areas had to retain the same geographic boundaries during the period covered, and they had to retain consistent reporting practices. We reviewed annual unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for 2009 and 2013. We also considered data from the Census Bureau's 2013 American Community Survey on household income, educational attainment rates, and poverty.
These are the cities where violent crime is soaring.
1. Bismarck, N.D.
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 92.4%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 206.6
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 397.6
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 3.0
While economic prosperity often helps to lower crime rates, this was not the case in Bismarck. Although wages in Bismarck have grown significantly since North Dakota's oil boom began, the massive influx of residents may have also strained local police. The area's unemployment rate of just 2.6% in 2013 was one of the lowest nationwide. And a typical household earned nearly $65,000 that year, one of the highest figures. Yet, crime has been on the rise. Drunk driving, which is not even part of the violent and property crime rates reviewed, rose 81% across the state between 2009 and 2013, and Bismarck has reported a similarly high incidence of drunk driving. In addition, while the murder rate declined between 2009 and 2013 in Bismarck, the aggravated assault rate more than doubled during those years, from 158.0 per 100,000 people in 2009 to 319.5 per 100,000 residents in 2013.
2. Medford, Ore.
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 80.4%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 195.1
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 352.0
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 4.0
Nearly half of Southern Oregon residents believed crime to be the most important issue in the area, according to a survey in late 2013. In fact, crime was considered a worse problem than the area's unemployment rate, which in Medford was still hovering around 10% in 2013. Increasingly, gangs have become a major presence in the area, using Interstate 5, which runs through Medford, to transport drugs. Between 2009 and 2013, reported violent crimes rose by 80%, and property crimes rose by nearly 58%, both the third largest increases in the country. Aggravated assault, which accounted for more than 70% of violent crimes in the Medford area in 2013, contributed significantly to the rise in violent crime. Between 2009 and 2013, the aggravated assault rate grew by nearly 70% to 252 per 100,000 residents, the eighth largest increase among all metro areas.
3. Columbus, Ind.
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 71.1%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 108.0
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 184.8
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 5.0
The violent crime rate in Columbus increased by more than 70% between 2009 and 2013, the fourth highest spike in the country. However, the area is still relatively safe by many measures. Even after the increase, 184.8 violent crimes were reported per 100,000 residents, one of the lower rates in the nation and less than half the national violent crime rate of 367.9 per 100,000 Americans. In addition, the property crime rate in the Columbus metro area fell by 3%. While most cities with rising crime rates also tended to be relatively poor areas, Columbus had a median household income of $52,505, in line with the 2013 national figure.
4. Longview, Wash.
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 67.1%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 212.0
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 354.3
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 1.0
While just one murder was reported per 100,000 people in the Longview area — one of the lowest rates nationwide — rape was reported far more frequently than in other metro areas. There were nearly 100 rapes reported per 100,000 people in 2013, the fifth highest rate nationally, and roughly four times the national rate of 25.2 rapes per 100,000 residents. As in several other cities where crime is soaring, Longview had a relatively high unemployment rate, at 10.1% in 2013. Residents also had relatively low educational attainment rates. Less than 16% of area adults had at least a bachelor's degree in 2013, one of the lowest rates, and almost half the national rate of nearly 30%.
5. Gadsden, Ala.
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 64.5%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 353.7
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 581.7
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 8.0
While the aggravated assault rate fell by more than 12% across the nation between 2009 and 2013, it more than doubled in the Gadsden metro area to more than 380 such crimes per 100,000 people. The spike in aggravated assaults accounted for the bulk of the violent crime growth of 64% in the area. Financial burdens likely made tackling crime more difficult for city officials, and some argue may have increased the level of crime. A typical household earned less than $40,000 in 2013, one of the lowest median household incomes nationwide. Also, just 16.2% of area adults had at least a bachelor's degree in 2013, much lower than the national rate of 29.6%. Gadsden's unemployment rate of 6.5%, on the other hand, was lower than the national rate of 7.4% in 2013.
24/7 WALL ST.: The rest of the Top 9 cities where crime is soaring
24/7 Wall St. is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.
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Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:49 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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6. San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 48.3%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 260.5
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 386.2
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 5.0
Reported violent crimes in the San Luis Obispo area rose from 260.5 per 100,000 residents in 2009 to 386.2 per 100,000 in 2013, a 48.3% increase. The increase in violent crime was driven primarily by an increase in aggravated assaults, which grew by nearly 71% between 2009 and 2013 to 316.8 per 100,000 residents. Other types of crime, such as property crime, did not increase over the five-year period. The relationship between crime rates and an area’s economy is disputed among experts. In the case of San Luis, while the violent crime rate increased dramatically, the area’s unemployment rate fell. Between 2009 and 2013, the jobless rate fell 2.3 percentage points to 6.7%, a lower unemployment rate than the national rate of 7.4% in 2013.
7. Madera-Chowchilla, CA
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 46.6%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 454.1
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 665.7
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 13.0
Madera had a violent crime rate of 665.7 per 100,000 people in 2013, a 46.6% increase from 2009, as well as the 15th highest crime rate among all metro areas. Financial distress among residents may have contributed to the area’s high crime rates. Madera had a median household income of less than $40,000 in 2013, considerably lower than the national median of $52,250. Nearly 24% of residents also lived in poverty that year, versus less than 16% of all Americans. A poor job market is partly to blame for the low incomes, as more than 11% of the workforce was unemployed in 2013, one of the highest unemployment rates compared to other large urban areas. Madera metro area residents were also poorly educated compared to other areas reviewed. In 2013, only 70% of adults had at least a high school diploma and just 13% had at least a bachelor’s degree, both some of the lowest rates nationwide.
8. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 40.2%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 294.8
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 413.2
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 7.0
While the metros with soaring crime rates were not necessarily the most dangerous areas in the United States, the Crestview-Fort Walton metro area had one of the higher crime rates in the nation. There were 413.2 violent crimes reported per 100,000 metro area residents in 2013, versus the national rate of 367.9. As in most cities with rising crime rates, Crestview’s 2013 unemployment rate of 5.2% — down from 7.1% in 2009 — was well below the national rate of 7.4%. Yet, the area’s strong economic growth since the recession did not seem to have helped fight rising crime rates. A heavy reliance on military-dependent industries may make the city more vulnerable to government cutbacks, which could make addressing the area’s soaring crime rate more difficult in the future
9. Sioux Falls, SD
> 5-year increase in violent crime rate: 37.7%
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2009): 211.9
> Violent crime per 100,000 (2013): 291.8
> Murders per 100,000 (2013): 3.0
In 2009, there were 212 violent crimes reported per 100,000 people in the Sioux Falls metro area, one of the lower rates nationwide. By 2013, the rate had risen to 292 violent crimes per 100,000 people, an increase of nearly 38% — the 10th largest increase among U.S. metro areas. City officials last year attributed part of this spike in crime to population growth. Yet, this does not fully explain the higher crime rate. Some crimes are also becoming more common than others. Methamphetamine-related crimes, for example, have risen dramatically in the area since 2009. Despite the increase in crime rate in recent years, however, the city remains significantly safer when compared to the national violent crime rate of 367.9 per 100,000 people, and the local economy is relatively strong. Just 3.3% of the area’s workforce was unemployed in 2013, one of the lower rates nationwide
Read more: Cities Where Crime Is Soaring - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/special-report/2015/02/03/cities-where-crime-is-soaring/#ixzz3cKVZ6N00
Follow us: @247wallst on Twitter | 247wallst on Facebook |
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Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:57 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Is a new crime wave on the horizon? - CNN.com
2 days ago ... After decades of a downward trend in crime, residents in some large ... the
nationwide decreases in violent crime means has been debated.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/us/crime-in-america/ - 285k - Cached - Similar Pages |
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Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:11 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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(CNN)—After decades of a downward trend in crime, residents in some large U.S. cities wonder if a reversal is coming.
If you live in Baltimore, you know that May, with 43 homicides, was the deadliest month since 1972. Or if you are a Houstonian, you've probably heard that murders were up 45% through April compared to the same period in 2014.
The latest statistics in Milwaukee show a 103% spike in murders year-to-date compared with a year ago. In Atlanta, 41 people were killed in the first five months of this year compared with 27 in the same period last year, an increase of 52%.
The spike in killings in these major cities would be troubling in itself at any time, but it is especially troubling now, when policing practices, race and social policies are regularly in the news.
The video of a gunman brazenly opening fire on another man in the Bronx in May, or another gunman caught on camera firing across the street at someone in Harlem in April, spread so swiftly online that it is fair to ask if a crime wave is on the horizon.
A review of murder statistics in major U.S. cities so far this year shows an unclear picture.
While Baltimore and Houston appear to be experiencing a crime wave, comparable cities like Dallas and Los Angeles are trending in the opposite direction.
In short, it is too early to draw conclusions of a shift in the trend for violent crime.
Anecdotal evidence
How telling is Baltimore's deadly month of May?
Of the 119 homicides recorded in Baltimore this year, more than one-third happened in May.
As the Baltimore Sun put it in an editorial, "We don't think it is at all unreasonable to start asking questions about leadership in a city that, over the last month, was less safe by some measures than it has been at any point in recorded history."
On Wednesday, Baltimore Police Commissioner Anthony Batts said his office is asking for more federal resources -- prosecutors and law enforcement officers -- to boost the city's response to the recent uptick in crime.
Speaking at an event remembering a toddler who was killed by a stray bullet last year, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said last month that it is a "very, very painful time in our city."
On the other extreme is Los Angeles. Because of its large population, the city notches one of the nation's highest numbers of murders, but the trend has been shrinking violent crime.
CNN requested murder statistics for 2015 from a number of large U.S. cities. Some departments cooperated right away, while others asked for more time or formal open records requests. Among the departments that released statistics, the numbers reflected different periods. Some cities had murder statistics through May, others just through April.
For the cities where crime does appear to be trending upward, how can one know if it is a blip or a historic reversal?
"It's a little bit like the stock market. These statistics go up and down," said Harold Pollack, co-director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab. "It's like asking why did the stock market go up 75 points today."
But numbers have the power to sway, and many of these figures are being used already to bolster arguments for stronger police enforcement or a reformed police presence.
As policing has changed over the years, the question of what the nationwide decreases in violent crime means has been debated.
There is general agreement that larger police departments -- and more officers in the streets -- has had a positive effect on lowering crime, Pollack said.
The quality of policing has also improved over the past 20 years and the departments are better managed, he said.
Other factors are harder to quantify.
The end of the crack epidemic is believed to have contributed to the decrease in violent crime, as have other reasons ranging from the legalization of abortion to changes in the illegal drug market.
This year "may not be shaping up to be a terrific year in many cities, and it may be part of a larger pattern, but we really don't know that," Pollack said.
So what's the debate right now?
One obvious difference between last year and this year is the tensions between police officers and certain communities.
The high-profile instances of police officers killing unarmed black men stirred outrage and protests.
There is an understanding that somehow things have changed -- or must change -- in a post-Michael Brown, post-Freddie Gray, post-Eric Garner America.
The debate on whether police reform is needed or whether more aggressive policing is necessary is often political. The early 2015 murder statistics are providing evidence for both sides.
"If there's a national mood that starts to see police as the bad guys, the police as the enemy responsible for these problems, it makes it a hell of a lot harder to police," said Peter Moskos, a former Baltimore police officer and professor of policing. "One way that cops deal with that is that they just stop policing those people."
A former New York Police Department officer, Bill Stanton, agreed that an uptick in crime can be linked to police being less assertive.
"When you take away police pride and you take away giving them the benefit of the doubt ... and you're going to call them racist and you're going to prosecute them for doing nothing wrong," Stanton said, "then what happens is they're going to roll back. They're not going to go that extra mile."
CNN Political Analyst Van Jones said tying the protests over the deaths of unarmed black men to increases in crime is disingenuous.
"Police unions are trying to link any crime to First Amendment protests and cherry-picking data," he told CNN's Erin Burnett.
"This is all part of an attempt to tell black people that if we exercise our First Amendment rights, we are somehow now responsible for people who engage in crime," he said. "Why should the black community have to choose between police abuse and police neglect? That's a false choice."
The fundamentals
The bottom line, statisticians say, is that there is not enough data to conclude if a new crime wave is upon us, or if there is, what factors are behind it.
Pollack suggested that looking at the available data through a political lens can distract from a focus on the fundamentals.
Nearly without exception, the protests over the killings of unarmed black men have been examples of police misconduct or mistakes, Pollack said.
All communities need and want good policing, and the focus should be on factors that are known to have lowered crime, he said.
Things like community policing and addressing other social issues in the communities have worked, he said.
"Public safety is a joint product of the police and the community, and each side has to trust each other, and when that trust breaks down, it's very hard for police to do its job and for the community to do do its part as well," he said.
But with the current political climate, don't be surprised if crime statistics become part of the discussion on race and policing.
"The premise of the Black Lives Matter movement, that the police are the biggest threat facing young black males today, is simply false, and the animosity that's directed to police on the streets today is having an effect," Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute told CNN's Chris Cuomo. "I've heard from many officers that they are reluctant to engage in actions that could be misinterpreted on cellphone cameras."
The accusation from the other side is that there is an intentional effort to undermine the political support black protesters have garnered.
"Conflation of the protests with a rise in crime and criminality itself kind of defames what the protests are about," New York Times columnist Charles Blow told Cuomo. |
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Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:15 pm |
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