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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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DETROIT FREE PRESS
Flint, Saginaw rank high among the fastest shrinking cities in U.S.
11:34 AM, April 19, 2014 |
By Vince Calio, Alexander E.M. Hess and Thomas C. Frohlich
related :Michigan ranks among 10 worst states for retirement
The U.S. population rose by just 0.72% in 2013, the lowest growth rate in more than 70 years. Not only has the country become less-attractive to immigrants than in years past, with net immigration down from nearly 1.2 million as of 2001 to 843,145 last year, but also the U.S.'s domestic birth rate has dropped to a multi-decade low.
While the population of most of the country's metro areas grew at a low pace in recent years, in a small number of metro areas the population actually shrank. Looking at the most recent years, the U.S. population rose by just 2.4% between April 2010 and July 2013, but in 30 metro areas the population shrank by at least 1%. The population in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, fell a nation-leading 4.4% in that time. Based on recently released U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 24/7 Wall St. examined the cities with shrinking populations.
Most of the metro areas with the largest declines in populations have been shrinking for decades.The total population of Cambria County, Pennsylvania — which makes up the Johnstown metro area — has fallen 34% between 1940 and 2013. Allegany County, Maryland — the central county of the Cumberland, Maryland metro area — peaked in population during the 1950 Census. The county's population has since fallen by 18%, according to the Census Bureau's 2013 population estimates.
In many of these areas, long-term drops in manufacturing jobs are tied to specific industries. The Youngstown, Ohio; Weirton, West Virginia; and Johnstown, Pennsylvania metro areas were all once home to major employers in the steel industry. Each of these areas lost many of the jobs these businesses once supported. Similarly, automotive factory closures have hurt the Saginaw, Michigan and Mansfield, Ohio metro areas.
Kenneth M. Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, told 24/7 Wall St. that industry declines and job losses can lead to population declines. "It's entirely plausible that the loss of jobs in a specific industry sector could be be the driving force in that kind of decline," he said.
Of course, manufacturing jobs have declined nearly 30% in the U.S. between 2001 and 2013. However, in eight of the areas with shrinking populations, the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector fell by more than the nationwide decline, according to figures produced by Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI). Flint, Michigan, lost the most jobs in the sector as manufacturing employment declined 57% from 2001 to 2013.
In general, these areas suffered from weak job markets overall. In Pine Bluff, the metro area with the single greatest loss of residents, the unemployment rate at the end of last year was more than 10%, among the highest in the country. Similarly, Flint, Saginaw, and Carson City, Nevada, all had unemployment rates of at least 9% in December 2013, well above the national rate of 6.7%
According to Johnson, young people leaving the area in order to look for work have driven the population decline for many industrial metro areas in the Midwest. "As a result, you would lose not only the young adults themselves but, over time, the children they would have produced."
The loss in younger residents has also lead to a higher median age in these areas. "You would have a higher death-to-birth ratio because there aren't as many births, but also because an aging population has higher mortality risk," said Johnson. In 2012, six of the metro areas with the largest declines had populations with a median age of at least 40 years, older than the national median age of 37.4. A typical Johnstown resident was 44 years old.
While most of these areas had long-term, steady declines in population, the decline in Carson City and Farmington was more recent. Since 1940, San Juan County, New Mexico, the central county in Farmington, and Carson City, Nevada have grown 639% and 1,585%, respectively.
"I think its important to make a distinction between these shorter-term population trends in the 2010 to 2013 period and these longer-term trends that have hurt these older, industrial areas in the Midwest," noted Johnson.
Based on recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 24/7 Wall St. examined changes in population for 381 metropolitan statistical areas from April 2010 through July 2013. We also considered figures from the Census Bureau's 2012 American Community Survey. We reviewed population figures from each decennial Census since 1940, using each area's largest county as a proxy for the metro area. Data on incomes and price levels, current as of 2012 and 2011, respectively, are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Figures on home price changes are from the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) House Price Index and are current as of the end of 2013. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for December of each year from 2010 to 2013 are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimates for gross metropolitan product are from IHS Global Insight. EMSI data on changes in total jobs, as well as manufacturing and construction jobs, between 2001 and 2013 were also considered.
These are America's shrinking cities.
1. Pine Bluff, Ark.
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -4.43%
> Population change from peak (1980): -19.3%
> Unemployment: 10.2% (21st highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -1.7% (17th lowest)
Pine Bluff's population fell by more than 4.4% between 2010 and 2013, or by more than 1,000 people per year in each of the last three years.Most of this decline can be attributed to outward migration. Nearly 5,000 people left the area in that time, as Pine Bluff's population fell from just over 100,000 to less than 96,000. County officials remain unsure about what has caused the drop in population, although high crime rates are believed to be one possibility. Another contributing factor may be the lack of good area jobs — Pine Bluff's unemployment rate topped 10% at the end of last year, among the highest rates of any metro area. Despite substantial recent gains, per capita personal income in Pine Bluff was just $32,776 in 2012, among the lower incomes in the country and well below the per capita national income of $45,188. The area's economy has also been struggling, shrinking 1.7% last year, among the largest declines in the country.
2. Farmington, N.M.
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -2.72%
> Population change from peak (2010): -2.8%
> Unemployment: 6.4% (163rd lowest)
> GMP change, 2013: -1.4% (18th lowest)
While most metro areas with declining populations have been shrinking for a while, Farmington's population was actually growing until recently. Nearly 7,000 more people moved out of Farmington than moved in between 2010 and 2013, among the highest outward migrations in the nation over that period. While the area's 6.4% unemployment rate at the end of 2013 was below the U.S. unemployment rate, the area's per capita personal income was $33,092 in 2012, among the lowest in the country. The area's economy has also contracted for two consecutive years, shrinking 2.2% in 2012 and 1.4% in 2013 — both among the largest drops in the nation. However, the area is experiencing a spike in oil investment. This could provide a boost to the Farmington economy and lure people to the area.
3. Flint
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -2.45%
> Population change from peak (1980): -7.8%
> Unemployment: 9.8% (25th highest)
> GMP change, 2013: +1.4% (135th highest)
Flint — known for its manufacturing industry — is still feeling the effects of General Motor's 2009 bankruptcy. While the company was rescued by the government, numerous, less profitable GM facilities were still liquidated, many of which were located in Flint. Nearly 10% of the workforce was unemployed as of December 2013, among the worst rates in the nation. The poor work climate may be contributing to the city's exodus. Flint's population was 415,376 last year, down 2.45% from April 2010, most of which can be explained by migration. Much of this decline occurred between mid 2011 and mid 2012, when the city's population dropped by nearly 4,000, the largest nominal decline nationwide over that time.
4. Johnstown, Penn.
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -2.21%
> Population change from peak (1940): -34.2%
> Unemployment: 8.1% (tied-75th highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -1.1% (29th lowest)
A falling population is hardly a new trend in the Johnstown area, which consists of Pennsylvania's Cambria County. Since 1940, when the county's population topped 213,000 people, the number of residents in Cambria County has dropped in every decade. Johnstown's population fell from 143,677 in 2010 to less than 140,500 last year. A portion of this was attributable to migration, as net 1,600 residents moved out of the area during that time. As of 2012, Johnstown's population was among the nation's oldest, with a median age of 44.1, while more than 19% of the population were senior citizens, among the highest in the U.S. The area was once a major steel maker, and before that it was a major source of coal. Bethlehem Steel alone accounted for more than 11,000 jobs in the area during the 1970s, according to the Johnstown Area Heritage Association. The Fortune 500 company, which no longer exists, permanently closed its Johnstown plant in 1992.
5. Mansfield, Ohio
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -2.17%
> Population change from peak (1980): -7.2%
> Unemployment: 8.1% (tied-75th highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -0.4% (tied-57th lowest)
Mansfield was hit hard by the bankruptcy of General Motors in 2009 when GM closed its plant in the area. The plant was the area's biggest employer at the time with more than 400 workers. Nearly 3,000 more people moved out of the area than people moved in between 2010 and 2013, one of the largest outward migrations in the country over that time frame. The area's unemployment rate was 8.1% in December 2013, higher than the U.S. unemployment rate of 6.7%. Mansfield's economy shrank by 0.4% in 2013, even as national output grew by 1.9%. The area's poor economy and the city's inability to generate sufficient funds from taxes, led the Mansfield city school district to declare a state of fiscal emergency in December.
6. Carson City, Nev.
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -2.16%
> Population change from peak (2000): +3.1%
> Unemployment: 9.5% (28th highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -1.3% (22nd lowest)
The Carson City metro area experienced considerable outward migration between 2010 and 2013. In that time, nearly 1,000 residents left the area, which had a population of slightly more than 54,000 last year. Natural population growth was also negative, as deaths outnumbered births in every year from 2010 onward. The significant population decline was likely due in part to the area’s poor economy. The area’s unemployment rate was among the worst in the country, at 9.5%, as was the decline in home prices over the five years prior to the end of 2013. Also, personal income barely grew between 2010 and 2012, rising just 2.2% a year, among the lowest growth rates in the nation.Still, people may return to the area if the economy improves. An October 2013 report by the Nevada State Demographer’s Office projects that Carson City’s population will begin growing in the future.
7. Cumberland, Md.-W. Va.
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -2.0%
> Population change from peak (1950):-17.9%
> Unemployment: 7.1% (141st lowest)
> GMP change, 2013: +0.5% (141st lowest)
Factories run by Pittsburgh Plate Glass (PPG), Allegany Munitions and Kelly Springfield Tire once employed many Cumberland area residents. While PPG is still a Fortune 500 company, it ceased manufacturing in Cumberland in 1981, and the Kelly Springfield Tire plant closed in 1987. Allegany Munitions, now called Alliant Technologies, still employed more than 1,400 people in the area as of 2012. Not surprisingly, a weak economy may contribute to the area’s population decline. The area’s GMP grew by only an estimated 0.5% in 2013, well below the 1.9% national GDP growth. Cumberland city officials have initiated a plan to construct multi-family housing as an attempt to reverse the decline. The plan includes upgrades to the city’s infrastructure, including schools and roads.
8. Weirton-Steubenville, W. Va.-Ohio
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -1.98%
> Population change from peak (1960): -31.5%
> Unemployment: 8.9% (45th highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -2.6% (5th lowest)
From 1960 to 2013, the population in Jefferson County, Ohio, the largest county in the Weirton metro area, declined by 31.5%. Like many of the fastest shrinking areas in the U.S., the Weirton metro area’s population once relied on the U.S. steel industry for jobs. In 2007, Weirton Steel Corp. plant was closed, ending the production of steel at a company that had once been a major part of the city’s identity. In 2012, 19% of the area’s population were senior citizens, and the median age was 43.8 years old, making the area one of the oldest in the U.S. From 2010 to 2013, the area lost nearly 2% of its population, largely due to natural factors, as deaths outnumbered births by more than 1,800.
9. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Penn.
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -1.81% (tied, 10th highest)
> Population change from peak (1970): -22.9%
> Unemployment: 8.1% (tied-75th highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -0.4% (tied, 57th lowest)
Mahoning County, Ohio, the largest in the Youngstown metro area, lost 23% of its population since its peak in 1970. The metro area’s population was decimated when a major source of jobs, the steel industry, began to get leaner and shut down factories in the 1970s and 1980s. Sections of the city became so sparsely populated over the past three decades that, in 2002, the administration revealed a plan to move residents from low-population areas to other neighborhoods within the city — although many residents were unwilling to move. Jobs in manufacturing have continued to diminish in recent years as well, falling by 37% between 2001 and 2013 — although manufacturing continued to account for an outsized portion of all jobs. Recently, the area’s economy has struggled, with GMP shrinking by 0.4% last year, even as the U.S. economy grew 1.9%.
10. Saginaw
> Net population change, 2010 to 2013: -1.81% (tied, 10th highest)
> Population change from peak (1980): -13.8%
> Unemployment: 9.0% (42nd highest)
> GMP change, 2013: -1.2% (25th lowest)
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The Saginaw metro area’s population fell by 1.8% between 2010 and 2013, largely due to people leaving the area. A net total of 4,393 people moved out of the area during those years. The area’s auto manufacturing sector and supporting industries have shrank in recent decades. A number of General Motors factories in the county have closed down over the years with only one remaining today, Saginaw Metal Casting Operations. While manufacturing employment has recovered slightly in recent years, Saginaw’s unemployment rate of 9% at the end of last year was still well above the national rate of 6.7%. Incomes were also quite low in the area, where per capita personal income was slightly more than $33,000 in 2012, versus more than $45,000 nationwide. |
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Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:37 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Michigan ranks among 10 worst states for retirement
11:34 AM, April 19, 2014 |
/Detroit Free Press
By John Brady
Topretirements.com (via USA TODAY)
Flint, Saginaw rank high among the fastest shrinking cities in U.S.
Finding the best place to retire in is a little bit like looking for a mate. There are lots of pretty ones out there. To help weed out the more unattractive ones, we present our third annual (we skipped 2013) list of the worst states for retirement. There is one main point we want to emphasize – everyone’s retirement situation is different, so a one size fits all approach won’t work. If your grandchildren live in one of these states and you want to be near them – that makes it a great retirement state for you.
Factors we considered:
High property taxes. If you own property, you can’t avoid these taxes. No matter how high or how low your income, you will pay taxes based on the value of your home. Since retirees generally don’t have a lot of income, this is our No. 1 negative consideration.
Taxation of Social Security & pension/retirement income.Just about everybody in America will receive Social Security in retirement. It’s generally not that much (in 2014, the average couple on Social Security receives $2,111 a month), so the taxes on that income is usually not a critical factor. However, for the fortunate, but shrinking, number of people receiving defined benefit pensions, taxes on those pensions could be a deciding factor on where you decide to retire. The type, and where that pension comes from, has a big effect on state taxation.
For example, is it from in or out of state, or is it a military or other government pension? Even more people are likely to be affected by the taxation of retirement benefits, such as the recommended mandatory distributions (RMDs) that you must start taking the year you reach age 70-1/2. State taxation of pensions and distributions from 401ks, IRAs, etc. is all over the map and difficult to research. On these matters, you should use a tax professional to help make sure you get the most accurate information.
Cost of living: The majority of Baby Boomers won’t have the resources to sustain the lifestyle we had in our working days once we retire. So it makes a great deal of sense to look for a place to live where our scarce dollars go further.
Low estate and inheritance taxes: Millions of Boomers have accumulated substantial estates, thanks to hard work and/or good fortune. Assuming we want to pass much of that on to our heirs, the presence and severity of any estate and inheritance factors should be considered. For example, in 2014 the federal estate tax is 40% on anything over $5.340 million (indexed for inflation). But several states are much harsher; two of them start taxing estates under $1 million (New Jersey and Rhode Island).
Other considerations: Warm winter climate, good medical care, where your children, family, and friends live, where you have always wanted to live, recreational and cultural opportunities, natural beauty, transportation, crime and natural disasters.
Our rankings explained:In the spirit of recognizing that what makes a state good or bad for retirement is highly personal, we have refrained from ranking the states on this list. We have simply presented them in the order of property taxes paid as a percentage of home value. That is our No. 1 consideration here, but not our only one. Look at the facts and the pluses and minuses we have provided for each – and rank them based on your own situation. For example, if you are going to receive a large pension and are very concerned about how it will be taxed, stay away from states that will tax it..
Here is our list of the worst states for retirement for 2014:
New Jersey
Negatives: Highest property taxes in nation. Taxes pensions. Highest estate taxes in the nation with an exclusion beginning at $675,000. One of the highest marginal tax rates at 8.97% on incomes over $500,000. One of the highest cost of living (46 out of 51).
Pluses: The Garden State has a high exclusion for pension income. Social Security benefits are not taxed. Lowest gas tax in the nation (and by law you are not allowed to pump it yourself!). Not to mention some of the world’s great beaches. N.J. has a senior tax freeze program, but it is hard to determine if that results in meaningful savings.
Illinois
Negatives: Second-highest property taxes. Has an estate tax and the fifth-highest gas tax.
Pluses: Pensions and social security income are exempt from taxation. Cost of living is about average.
Wisconsin
Negatives: The fourth-highest property taxes in the United States. Retirement income is taxable. Relatively high marginal income tax rate of 7.75% in the highest bracket (over $225,000).
Pluses: No tax on Social Security benefits. No estate estate tax.
Nebraska
Negatives: The sixth-highest property tax as a percentage of home value. Social Security and pension income are taxed. The marginal tax rate is 6.84%, which starts at a very low $29,000. There is an inheritance tax.
Pluses: The second-lowest cost of living in the country.
Michigan
Negatives: High property taxes as a percentage of home value (#7). The current exemptions for pension and retirement income will be eliminated for people born after 1952.
Positives: Social Security will remain exempt. No estate or inheritance tax. Below-average cost of living (#18 ).
Vermont
Negatives: High property taxes. Social Security and pension income are taxed.There is a high marginal tax rate of 8.95% (on incomes over $405,100). High cost of living (#41).
Pluses: It is a beautiful state with nice people! Its mountains and forests provide outstanding recreation.
Ohio
Negatives: Some pension/retirement income is taxed. Marginal tax rate is 5.95%.
Pluses: Ohio’s estate state tax has been repealed. Social Security benefits are not taxed by the state. Cost of living is below average (#15).
Connecticut
Negatives: The tenth-highest property taxes (since homes are generally expensive here, that means people pay a lot of tax). The fourth-highest gas tax. The fourth-highest estate taxes (16% on anything over a $2 million estate. Top marginal tax rate is 6.7%. Social Security and retirement income is taxable for higher income residents. Cost of living is high (48th of 51).
Positives: Connecticut has the highest personal exemptions in the country ($24,000 for a couple, and there are some Social Security benefit exemptions.
Rhode Island
Negatives: High property taxes (#11). Social Security and retirement benefits are taxed. The second-highest estate tax (which starts on estates of $965,000). Marginal income tax rate of 5.99% on incomes over $135,500. High cost of living (#44). The state’s finances are under duress from deficits and pension funding.
Positives: So many bays, harbors, and oceanfront property that living near the water is easy.
New York
Negatives: The thirteenth-highest property tax as a percentage of home value. Some pension income is taxable. The estate tax kicks in for estates over $1 million. Very high cost of living (49 out of 51).
Pluses: No tax on social security income. The governor is trying to reduce some of these taxes, especially the estate tax.
States with high property taxes – but not on our top 10 worst list:Notice that we did not include all of the states with the highest property taxes on our “10 worst” list. That is because some of them have some positive factors that trump their high property taxes. They are:
Pennsylvania.
Doesn’t tax pensions or Social Security. Has an inheritance tax. Relatively low income tax rate of 3.07%, although there are no personal exemptions.
Iowa.
Social Security is not taxable as of 2014. Some pensions are exempt. There is a 15% inheritance tax. Cost of living is well below average.
Kansas.
Taxes Social Security on higher income residents. Pension income is normally taxable. But there is no estate tax, and the cost of living is low.
New Hampshire. The third-highest property tax in the nation. Although the cost of living is among the highest of any state, there is no sales tax, and the only income that is taxed is interest and dividends.
Texas.
Although it has the fifth-highest property tax rates, there is no income or estate tax.
California. Surprisingly enough, the Golden State has below average property taxes as a percentage of home value (#33). Part of that stems from the very high value of homes there, plus Homestead protections. But the state has other problems for retirees: High cost of living, the highest marginal rate in the country (13.3%), traffic, pollution, fiscal woes, and it does tax pensions. Social Security is exempt, and the weather is usually great.
In the end, most of the reasons why states made our 10 worst list have to do with money and taxes. There are more important considerations to think about, however. Use this list as a guide, but pick a place to retire based on the whole picture. |
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Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:44 pm |
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