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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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The East Village News
Essays
Essay: Things to watch in August election
By Paul Rozycki Friday, July 18, 2014 Hits: 209
What if they had an election and nobody ran?
That’s not quite the case, but look at who doesn’t need to compete on the ballot this August.
There is no significant primary contest in the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race, the U.S. House race, most state House seats and most state Senate seats.
Three of the nine county commissioners are unopposed in both the primary and general elections.
With so much off the table, what can we expect in the August primary?
For openers, expect a very low turnout. Most voters will decide that they have something more important to do on Aug. 5 rather than voting — like rearranging their sock drawer or clipping last week’s Burger King coupons.
It will probably be a very light turnout — maybe about 10 to 12 percent — as it often is for our August primaries, but that doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. For most races, the August primary is the real election.
Because Genesee County is generally a solid Democratic county, most of those who win the Democratic nomination will be assured election in November. We’re not unique. Most parts of the state and the nation strongly support one party. In strong Republican areas, like Lapeer County and the Thumb, the winners of the Republican primary are all but certain of victory in the fall.
Here are things to watch in this quiet election.
The hottest race this summer is the contest to replace term-limited state Rep. Woodrow Stanley in the 34th District, which covers much of the northern and eastern parts of Flint and the surrounding territory.
There are eight Democratic candidates in the race — Jeff Bean, Donna Calvin, David Davenport, Eric Mays, Nathan Morrish, Quincy Murphy, Sheldon Neeley and Omar Sims. Given that half of them have some governmental and campaign experience, a case could be made for almost any of the eight having a fair chance of winning.
The probable front runners are Sims and Neeley, with Jeff Bean having a decent shot at pulling it off.
Since this is a solidly Democratic district, the August winner is assured of winning in November.
In the County Commission races there are several real contests as well.
In the 3rd District, in the Burton area, County Board Chairman Jamie Curtis is facing Burton Council member Danny Wells. Curtis has won most elections in the past with little problem, but Wells has a well-funded and well-organized campaign and Curtis might be facing an upset.
In the 7th District, in northwestern Genesee County, veteran County Commissioner Archie Bailey has opted to retire, leaving the seat open to four challengers — Bill Bain, Martin Cousineau, Andrew Everman and Michael Lynch. While Lynch has received some important endorsements, Everman is putting together a very active and energetic campaign and Bain is getting on board with his advertising. Look for Lynch and Everman to battle it out, with Bain having a longer shot.
In the 1st District, covering the Mount Morris area, Omar Sims created an open seat when he decided to run for the state legislature. City council member Bryant Nolden should have the edge, but Bernadel Jefferson is well known and could make a race of it.
And finally, Proposal 1 will be on the ballot. It’s a mind-numbingly complex proposal, which would get rid of the personal property tax and replace the lost revenue by eliminating other business tax breaks. It has widespread support, but when voters are confused, they often vote no — and this is a very confusing proposal.
(Check the July East Village Magazine or www.eastvillagemagazine.org for a longer discussion of Proposal 1.)
There are a few other races that might surprise us and prove competitive and there are two millage renewals on the ballot.
It will be easy to skip this election. Don’t do it. Get out and vote. As quiet as it is, it’s still important.
You can take care of your sock drawer later. Who’s going to notice if your socks don’t match anyway? And Burger King probably will have new coupons next week.
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Paul Rozycki is a professor of political science at Mott Community College. He has lived in Flint since 1969 and has been involved with and observed Flint politics for many years. He is author of Politics and Government in Michigan (with Jim Hanley) and A Clearer Image: The History of Mott Community College. |
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Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:57 pm |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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I disagree with Rozycki about the popularity of Sims and indeed the most recent polls show him a distant third in the race or Stanley's seat.
I believe Bryant Nolden will pull off his bid for the 1st district county commission race. His Master's in Public Administration will serve him well in this post.
Bernadel Jefferson has made herself well known in her lobbying against the Emergency Manager and her work with NAN in Detroit. However, I have listened to her on the A C Dumas radio show as well as the Mike Killbreath radio show and I was not impressed with he knowledge of local issues. When Dumas was interviewing Drain Commissioner Jeff Wright, Jefferson had no idea that the county did not control the Flint water rates. If she had been listening before she spoke, that had been explained. Her solution for the high water rates for her church was to drill a well. Not everyone can do that. |
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Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:07 pm |
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